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Strategic Estimate 2010

Introduction
As the first decade of the 21st century has drawn to a close, many thinkers, academics and policy makers are developing their assessments and forecasts for 2010 and beyond.

The ‘Noughties' as the 21st centuries first decade has come to be known was defined by the war on terror, the decline of the US as a world power, the global financial crisis and the resurgence of Russia.

The world's powers regularly make assessments of all the trends they face and the trends they perceive will impact them. This is in order to protect themselves from any emerging threats and prepare for any challenges. An example of such an assessment is Americas National Intelligence Estimate (NIE). The NIE is the authoritative assessment and coordinated judgments of the United States Intelligence Community, a group of 16 US intelligence agencies. Alongside this many think tanks also produce assessments and reviews and construct policies upon such assessments in the hope that their proposals will be adopted by governments around the world.

The Muslim Ummah today is without a state, as a result rather than producing its own assessments the Muslim world is the subject of study and on the receiving end of Western designs. This would be the inevitable situation as without a state, there would be very little incentive to follow global trends and as a result no polices to counter such threats and challenges would ever develop.

Politics in Islam is the taking care of the affairs of the Ummah and is practically carried out by the Khilafah state. Islam obliges politics upon the Ummah as many ayah of the Qur'an and many Hadith order the Ummah to account the rulers, hold them to task and for the Ummah to defend the deen. Today this is practically achieved through monitoring the plots and plans against the Ummah and Islam, exposing such plans and engaging in political, intellectual and ideological struggle with those who have designs on the Ummah.

What follows inshallah is the author's opinion and assessment on the trends for 2010 and short to medium term - i.e. the next decade. This is based upon current trends, the plans of some of the world's powers and the likely outcome of such manoeuvres. Like any assessment, they are merely estimates and forecasts; as global politics is always in a state of flux such an assessment will never remain static nothing can happen without the permission of Allah سبحانه وتعالى


27th Muharram 1431
12th January 2010
Adnan Khan

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